Earthquake Hazard

Seismic Hazard is the computation of the probability of occurrence of ground shaking in a given time period, to produce maps of seismic hazard and related uncertainties at appropriate scales. It is the main ingredient in the assessment of seismic risk and provides one of the main inputs in codes  for the earthquake resistant design of structures.

Current State

There has been two projects towards the  unified assessment and mapping of seismic hazard in Europe. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), a UN/IDNDR demonstration project, produced the first seismic hazard map for the European-Mediterranean region as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Map, based on the compilation and assemblage of hazard results obtained independently in different test areas and multinational programs (Adria, Ibero-Maghreb, Central-Northern Europe, Fennoscandia, Turkey and Greece, Caucasus, Near East, the Balkans). We were in charge of the Turkey-Greece test area which provided the opportunity of interaction with other European institutions.
The ESC-SESAME project (European Seismological Commission -IUGS Program Project no. 382) produced a  unified model for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Europe and the Mediterranean. We have jointly worked and  furthered our cooperation with European institutions involved in the project.



Erdik, M., M.Demircioglu, K.Sesetyan, E.Durukal and B.Siyahi (2004), Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Marmara Region, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, vol:24, pp:605-631.

M. Erdik, K. Sesetyan, M. Demircioglu, E. Durukal, B. Siyahi (2004), EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR ISTANBUL , ESC XXIX General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Potsdam, Germany

Erdik, M.B. Demircioglu, K. Sesetyan, E. Durukal and B. Siyahi 2003, “Earthquake Hazard in Marmara Region”, European Geophysical Society (EGS)-American Geophysical Union (AGU)- European Union of Geosciences (EUG) Joint Assembly, Nice-France,06-11 April 2003.

Jimenez,M.J., D.Giardini, G.Grunthal, M.Erdik, M.Garcia-Fernandez, J.Lapajne, K.Makropoulos,R.Musson, Ch.Papaioannou, A.Rebez, S.Riad, S.Sellami, A.Shapira, D.Slejko, T. van Eck, A. El Sayed (2001),  Unified Seismic Hazard Modeling Throughout the Mediterranean Region, Bolletino Di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata, v.42, pp.3-18.

Erdik,M., Y. Biro, T. Onur, K. Sesetyan and G. Birgoren (1999), “Assessment of earthquake hazard in Turkey and neighboring regions”, Annali Di Geofisica, Vol. 42 N.6, pp. 1125-1138.

M.Erdik, K.Sesetyan, Seismic Hazard in the Caucasus Region, Abstract Volume-NH3 Earthquake Risk Mitigation, European Geophysical Society: XXIII General Assembly, Nice, France, 20-24 April, 1998.

M.Erdik, K.Sesetyan, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Caucasus, Proceedings of Prof. Dr. Rifat Yarar Symposium, 10 December 1997, I.T.Ü., Istanbul.