DEVELOPMENT OF AN URBAN EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FOR İZMİR

Gülüm Birgören

(Thesis Supervisor: Mustafa Erdik)

ABSTRACT

The city of Izmir is the third largest city of Turkey. The area encompassing Izmir is one of the most seismically active parts of the Aegean Plate and Izmir belongs to the first degree hazard zone in the official Earthquake Hazard Regionalization Map of Turkey. Therefore, earthquakes constitute one of the most important natural hazards and risks for Izmir and the mitigation of this risk necessitate immediate preparation of disaster response and management plans. A primary objective of this study is to develop hazard maps of İzmir in both probabilistic and deterministic terms and to investigate the damage to physical and social elements at risk as a consequence of the scenario earthquake. In addition, this study provides recommendations for reducing the earthquake losses in the event of the scenario earthquake. The vulnerability functions used in the study are based on the previous studies on Turkish earthquakes as well as data adopted from other worldwide studies. The maps produced in this study can be used in earthquake resistant design practices, land use management, earthquake insurance and emergency planning studies. They can also constitute a basis for more detailed analyses. Keywords: Earthquake, Deterministic, Probabilistic, Scenario.